At Outside the Beltway Doug Mataconis makes his predictions for the midterm elections:
Taking all of that into account, here’s my prediction for the House:
Current makeup of the House:
Republicans — 235 seats
Democrats — 193 seats
Vacant — 7 seats
Makeup of the House after Election Day:
Democrats — 230 seats
Republicans — 205 seats
Net Democratic gain +37 seats
while for the Senate he predicts no net change.
That’s essentially what I’ve been predicting for months now although I think the Republicans will probably do slightly better than he does, gaining a seat in the Senate and losing the House more narrowly than he predicts.
However, as pundits chastened by their own poor predictive performance in 2016 have been saying, anything can happen. Democrats could pick up 60 seats in the House and a half dozen in the Senate; Republicans could pick up several seats in the Senate and hold the House. It depends not just on how many voters show up to vote but whose voters show up and on that the polls may just be flat wrong.