Debate Question

Here’s an interesting debate question.

Resolved: the greatest likelihood of nuclear war is in Asia.

Consider that in the context of this observation:

Military competition between China and the United States will not be the only struggle in Asia. China and India observe each other warily across the Himalayas and in the Indian Ocean. China and Japan are not only planning for conflict but maneuvering their forces against one another in the Western Pacific. Additionally, Japan and South Korea are developing capabilities to project power in response to other contingencies, which can possibly be seen as mutually threatening. The nations bordering the South China Sea are enhancing their ability to defend their maritime claims against China, but some have long histories of mutual mistrust.

Update

See also this article by John Mearsheimer:

The picture I have painted of what is likely to happen if China continues to rise is not a pretty one. Indeed, it is downright depressing. I wish I could tell a more hopeful story about the prospects for peace in Asia. But the fact is that international politics is a dangerous business, and no amount of goodwill can ameliorate the intense security competition that sets in when an aspiring hegemon comes on the scene in either Europe or Asia. And there is good reason to think China will eventually pursue regional hegemony.

I think that the situation is actually somewhat bleaker than the one he portrays. I think the greatest likelihood of a nuclear exchange is between Russia and China, India and Pakistan, or India and China, with the first two being far more likely.