Dean Esmay of Dean’s World begins to believe that Mr. Bush will be re-elected in the fall:
If Kerry loses, I now believe all the following will be the main factors:
1) Howard Dean and Joe Trippi
2) Terry McAuliffe
3) Michael Moore
4) The Kerry On Iraq film, which will get huge exposure, in various forms, in the next three months.
5) The Swift Boat Vets for Truth commercial, which is, indeed, the most devastating political ad I’ve ever seen in my life.
Dean should add that major econometric models predict a Bush victory. In particular the Fair model predicts 57.48 percent for Bush in the fall.
I’m a registered Democrat and I sincerely hope that something brings the Party back to its senses. They appear to be far from hinged right now, as P. G. Wodehouse might say. As I see it about 20% of the electorate (nearly half of Mr. Kerry’s supporters) are really outside the mainstream, support immediate withdrawal from Iraq, and believe that the government that governs most governs best. I’ve heard members of this group say “Elect him now; move him left later.” Since the New York Times poll of Democratic Convention suggested that 90% of the delegates belong to that fringe group, a purge of the Party would be likely to result in everyone but that fringe group being driven from the party. Not a happy time for the party of Jefferson, Jackson, and FDR.
The Republicans purged themselves of the John Birchers and the Ayn Rand zealots in the 1960s. They had to swallow hard but they did it. Look where it got them.
Yes, sure, most of the delegates were far left, but the delegates aren’t actually the people that control the party. And a sobering lesson would probably bring some of them back to their senses.
It may be that mass insanity comes to each of the two parties every few decades.
Honestly I think a purge of the Democrats is inevitable. It’s this year, or they manage to get Kerry over the top and stave off the inevitable. BUt I do think it’s inevitable.
I hope so. Because dude, they’re nuts right now, and that’s not good for ANYBODY.
Not of America is to be one nation with friendly rivalries and a few heated arguments where we then go get lunch afterwards together. Which is where we should be.
Dean:
Yes, sure, most of the delegates were far left, but the delegates aren’t actually the people that control the party. And a sobering lesson would probably bring some of them back to their senses.
I don’t know what things are like outside of Chicago but the Chicago delegates sure are the people who control the party here. First there are the super-delegates—office holders and other pols. Most of the other delegates are from unions—especially public employees’ unions—and other Democratic organizations. Identifying the local delegates, their politics, and policies is probably worth a post.