I just heard another Democratic pundit waxing poetic about the Democrats’ demographic advantage in the 2016 presidential election. The Gallup organization (from whom I sampled the graphic above) has a reminder for them:
The partisanship of the state population is a starting point in determining a state’s likely vote, and there are more states in the Republican column heading into 2016 — a positive sign for the GOP. But because electoral votes are based on state population, the size of the state matters as much as the number of states each party holds. The 20 states that Gallup classifies as solidly Republican or leaning Republican account for 152 electoral votes, less than the 187 accounted for by the 14 solidly or leaning Democratic states plus the heavily Democratic District of Columbia.
But the election will not be merely a reflection of party preferences among adults in each state. If party preferences led directly to vote outcomes, Democrats would surely have won most presidential elections in the past, given their historical advantage in party preferences nationally.
Turnout is another key factor in determining the outcome, and it will especially be key in the 16 competitive states, which together account for 199 electoral votes. Republicans typically have an advantage in voter turnout in elections, and they will need to at least match Democratic turnout in competitive states in which they have a slight party advantage among all adults, such as Georgia, Virginia and Arizona. And the GOP will likely need to exceed Democratic turnout to win some of the larger, most politically balanced states like Florida, Ohio and North Carolina.
Starting out with a 35 electoral vote advantage is helpful but it isn’t everything. The Democrats have a number of problems, too. People are ready for a change and the Democrats have a candidate who is an unlikely standardbearer for change. Can anyone really make the argument for Hillary Clinton as the agent of change without snickering?
In an election with low turnout literally anything can happen. Solid red states can turn blue and vice versa. Remember that at the last election deep blue Illinois elected a Republican governor.
Correction needed: Illinois is deep blue.
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The Democrats have a number of problems, too. People are ready for a change and the Democrats have a candidate who is an unlikely standardbearer for change.
The Democrats don’t have a candidate yet! While I admit that Hillary is the prohibitive favorite (your post a few days ago about the demographics of the support for Hillary & Bernie explains why), Bernie has been coming up in the national numbers, meaning there’s a lot of growing dissatisfaction with Hillary (who no longer merits an exclamation point), and who knows how this email thing is going to play out. (Frankly I’m surprised the judge hasn’t started throwing people from State in jail on contempt charges, but this isn’t the place to discuss that.)
So I don’t think Hillary is written in stone just yet. Get back to me after Super Tuesday – if the FBI has released its recommendations.
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And sorry, the idea that Washington & Oregon only lean Democratic is silly, as is the idea that Mississippi & Texas only lean Republican. The Donald MIGHT be able to flip the first two, no likely Democratic candidate will flip the other two. It’s still a couple of election cycles, and one Marco Rubio/Paul Ryan amnesty bill, before that happens.
Thanks. Corrected.
IMO Sanders had to win Iowa decisively to dethrone Hillary Clinton. Barring a cataclysm, after New Hampshire it will be all downhill for him.
I agree that that’s the most likely scenario, but there’s still time, and there’s still a cloud hanging over her head. And I don’t believe I’ve ever seen this little enthusiasm for a likely nominee, not even Kerry or Dole.
Well, I think Hillary would be a big change from Obama, but probably not in a good way (for Democrats). Despite her attempts to bolster her progressive bonafides, I doubt she’d govern as a progressive.
Sanders has no chance. Zero.
Hillary will be taken out kicking and screaming. The woman feels so entitled and sure of the machine she doesn’t even know how absurd she sounds flogging now the Vast Left Wing Conspiracy. But if she is, 1-800-call-JoeB.
I’ll selfishly take this opportunity to say I’ve posted my final comment at OTB in attempting to respond to Dr. Taylor on the New Hampshire primary. 3 out of four comments there are blocked via the spam filter, have been for six months and I’m tired of having my time wasted.