Last Friday a colleague of mine, born in Shanghai, showed us a video that appeared to depict people throwing a whole bat into a soup pot and claimed that was the source of the outbreak of coronavirus. Whether that was true or not, I agreed that the conditions of life in China suggest that, when the next great pandemic emerges, as it most surely will in time, it is highly likely to emerge from China. Something that had not occurred to me was that the urge to secrecy on the part of the Chinese authorities was one of those conditions.
In an op-ed in the Wall Street Journal Paul Wolfowitz and Max Frost take note of that:
Xi Jinping has acknowledged that the “accelerating spread†of a new coronavirus from the central Chinese city of Wuhan is a “grave situation.†To stop the virus’s spread, the Chinese government has barred residents of Wuhan and nearby cities from traveling and blocked outbound flights, trains, buses and ferries. But if this develops into a catastrophe, the cult of personality around Mr. Xi and the Communist regime’s efforts to control information will deserve much of the blame.
For a precedent, look back to 1918, when the Spanish flu broke out amid World War I. In the U.S., government officials and the press did all they could to play it down lest it hurt the war effort. While the Los Angeles health chief declared there was “no cause for alarm†and the Arkansas Gazette described the disease as the “same old fever and chills,†people were dying by the thousands.
The name “Spanish flu†was a misnomer. In the countries where it originally surfaced—France, China and the U.S.—the news was suppressed by censorship and self-censorship to maintain wartime morale. (China sent only civilian laborers to the battlefield, but it declared war on Germany in August 1917.) Not until King Alphonse XIII of neutral Spain fell ill did news of the virus spread widely.
Between the spring of 1918 and early 1919, three waves of Spanish flu tore across the planet, facilitated by censorship and secrecy. The results were catastrophic: 50 million people were killed world-wide, including nearly 700,000 Americans.
Because the Chinese Communist Party cares more about its social control than the well-being of China’s people, a similar situation is imaginable today. Health and Human Services Secretary Alex Azar has praised the Chinese authorities for being transparent and cooperative, including by publishing the sequence of the viruses they have isolated. But in other respects Beijing’s behavior has heightened the risk.
So far as far as I can tell, the Centers for Disease Control has responded very appropriately and responsibly. I’m not convinced the Chinese authorities are. For example, my understanding is that the CDC has asked to come there and review their findings at first hand but so far the Chinese have demurred.
I also think that our domestic news media have been overreacting. It isn’t the Zombie Apocalypse. So far, at least, it isn’t even the Spanish flu. 10% of those who contracted that disease die and, at least based on the statistics coming out of China, the number of fatalities from this new virus is nothing like that. Of course, we are relying heavily on China for those.
There is a common misconception of death rate versus case rate that I only recently became aware of. During the expanding period of an epidemic (or epizootic) the percentage of deaths always lags behind the new case rate, because one is comparing the number of deaths (of already extant cases) versus the number of overall cases (which includes often overwhelming numbers of new cases). A case of apples and oranges. It is only when the wave of infections has crested and is past can one easily and properly compare deaths versus cases and get a proper idea of total mortality. Below is a better definition of what I’m trying to describe.
https://www.cdc.gov/csels/dsepd/ss1978/lesson3/section3.html
With all the secrecy, bumbling, and it being so early in the epidemic, we really don’t have a handle on how bad Wuhan flu is at this point. I’m leaning towards SARS level lethality.
Well, yes. The infection rate slows but the infected keep dying.
Videos of people collapsing in the street or hospital in Wuhan province.
According to Wikipedia, hospital care in China is a tough call because of cost. Insurance paying only 50% of care. I’d expect people to arrive at the hospital in late stage of illness due to cost.
Probably more important, everyone has heard of Chinese meat markets where many different species are available live and dead in unsanitary conditions, and reportedly, putting things in their mouths I wouldn’t touch with my hands, after those things have marinated in the urine and feces of countless other creepy crawlies. No wonder they don’t want W.H.O. in there.
I think the media, as usual, is a dependable siren of the worst case scenario. However, the CDC seems to be making appropriate calls, except I think symptomatic people coming into this country from China should have their flights (not names) made public. This way public awareness would be increased, and tracking more possible, of people who might have been exposed to the coronavirus. This is especially important as it’s still unknown whether or not this virus can be passed to another before symptoms actually appear.
Long term, after this and SARS, you can see Chinese public attitudes change towards things that raise the risk of virus jumping species (like eating wild animals).
“Chinese public attitudes change”
They only hear the official line, and believe doing as they are told is moral, much like students at Berkeley.
” everyone has heard of Chinese meat markets where many different species are available live and dead in unsanitary conditions, and reportedly, putting things in their mouths I wouldn’t touch with my hands”
Then visit the poor parts of Africa. Same thing. I am surprised we dont see more come out of South America since you have lots of poor people, bush meat, poor sanitation and governments that hide stuff.
We shall see what happens but, again, it looks like the CDC and our public health agencies are handling this well. The difference between the Ebola outbreak and this time is that we had candidates running for office politicizing it and calling for all flights to be cut off and people put into camps. Then even people who should have known better were in panic or at least over reacting.
Steve
Really, really hope they get a handle on it. Q? Can we in the US quarantine a city of 11 million? Legally, practically?
Question — could you quarantine the City of Chicago?
My gut feel is the legal powers exist — the public health powers of government are very broad.
But it would require an extraordinary crisis to bring the will for governments to try and enforce such a quarantine.
On the other hand, from what I see in China, well before that point, most people would self-quarantine.
The movie Contagion imagined how such a scenario would look in the US.
Steve: The biggest reason why we’re not seeing so many nasty infections diseases from Africa here is poverty. Relatively few Africans can afford air travel, and those who can generally don’t live where these bad bugs are endemic or have contact with the animals that carry them. Whereas in China they can, witness the multiple cases elsewhere in the world.
It’s not so much the eating as the handling isn’t it? Education and latex gloves might help. Isn’t that always the way? You don’t get many clean kills like with smallpox, mostly you reduce infections and improve outcomes.
10% is the death toll in Italy, already 2-3% here. nothing like Spanish Flu? Trump supporter eh? Inbreeds cant be helped, so lets send you and the rest of your redneck bunch back to where you came from, Or send them to camps in Florida then sell Florida to Cuba. problem solved. We just need a wall on the Florida border is all.