Well, here’s your cheery news of the day, courtesy of the World Health Organization:
- The total number of probable and confirmed cases in the current outbreak of Ebola virus disease (EVD) in the four affected countries as reported by the respective Ministries of Health of Guinea, Liberia, Nigeria, and Sierra Leone is 3069, with 1552 deaths.
- The outbreak continues to accelerate. More than 40% of the total number of cases have occurred within the past 21 days. However, most cases are concentrated in only a few localities.
- The overall case fatality rate is 52%. It ranges from 42% in Sierra Leone to 66% in Guinea.
- A separate outbreak of Ebola virus disease, which is not related to the outbreak in West Africa, was laboratory-confirmed on 26 August by the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) and is detailed in a separate edition of the Disease Outbreak News.
I think there is some point at which the world should become genuinely concerned. I don’t know that we’re there yet but unless the outbreak(s) begin to subside that point looms nearer.
This outbreak is occurring in areas where they don’t have the infrastructure to handle it. They also have issues when the local population decides it is a curse and not an illness. IIRC, it was also the social issues that made AIDS hard to control in South Africa.
Steve
Since I’m in Africa right now, Ebola is a BFD. Governments are trying to contain the spread but effective governance here is a rarity. In West Africa it’s likely to get a lot worse because quarantine efforts are failing. There’s obviously a big concern about spreading from air travel, particularly since someone can be infected and not show symptoms for three weeks.
I continue to wonder how much hubris and patronism are involved in Western assessments of risk.
I saw an assessment on Vox which pretty much matched Steve’s post above. However, information is varied, with ranges of concerns from high to low, regarding how we should be judging this ebola problem.
Yesterday, for instance, a report said that the virus was ‘mutating’ quickly, while other reports say it hasn’t changed much since it first appeared decades ago. As far as it’s containment, it has now spread to Senegal. I personally am not reassured that just because it’s in Africa it will not present a problem here — especially in lieu of the current terrorist group (ISIS) which, in the case of the laptop found in Syria, appears to be exploring bio terrorism.
BTW, Andy, are you in Africa on vacation or is it work-related?
Jan,
For work (Uncle Sam).
Andy,
Somehow I thought that might be the case. If you have further reflections it would be interesting to hear them, as you seem to give cogent commentary about your own experiences.