Democrats haven’t had a week this bad since 2010 and its only Wednesday. While the headlines are focused on Democrats losing the special election in Florida’s 13th Congressional district, even worse news came in the form of an NBC News/Wall Street Journal national poll released last night, along with four statewide surveys conducted by a highly-regarded Democratic pollster in key Senate race states.
and ends it:
The bottom line here is that at least for today, this election is not about the myriad of problems facing the Republican Party (with minority, young, female and moderate voters) but instead is about President Obama and the Affordable Care Act, both deeply unpopular. The fight for the Senate is being fought in terrain far more challenging for Democrats (read more Romney than Obama states) and with a midterm electorate that is older, whiter, and much tougher for Dems than the one that re-elected Obama in 2012. Environmentally, this election reflects a mood not dissimilar to 2010; the big difference being in the House, where Democrats have relatively few vulnerable seats to protect, so the possibility of a party shift at a magnitude similar their 63-seat loss four years ago is extremely unlikely.
I think he goes a bit too far. Candidates that look good from party headquarters aren’t necessarily that appealing to the voters who actually show up to vote. The party label isn’t enough and, indeed, can work against you.
I do think that Democrats face headwinds that will only be made worse if they adopt a strategy of bitter negative advertising. Democrats may still hold on to the Senate. President Obama’s prospects for working with a Democratic Congress for the remainder of his term are vanishingly slim and IMO his tone for the last month or so suggests that his pollsters are telling him the same thing.