If you’re not familiar with the term “brinksmanship” it means pursuing a policy right up to the limits of safety, effectively playing “chicken”. The term game into use in the 1950s, mostly in the context of our nuclear defense policy. It was probably coined by Adlai Stevenson and I suspect that the neologism was inspired by “gamesmanship” (the art of winning without actually cheating) from the popular book by Stephen Potter of the same name.
Right now the members of Congress are engaging in brinksmanship with respect to the budget. Historically, the Democrats have won this particular game of “chicken”. My inference is that the Democratic leadership thinks that they will benefit by insisting on a sweeter deal for the resolution of the DACA issue or spending levels or both.
Opinion polls suggest that most Americans favor some sort of resolution of the DACA issue which allows the “DREAMers” to stay in the United States and they don’t support Trump’s wall. Are the Democrats calculating correctly or are they overplaying their hand? I tend to think that they’re calculating correctly and, if there’s a federal government shutdown, the Republicans will be blamed for it.
And so the shoe is on the other foot.
I’m not sure blame matters much anymore – most of the people playing this political game only need to worry about their base or don’t need to worry at all.
Also, it looks like the National Park System will not institute a pain policy this time and will instead try to keep parks as open as much as possible. The Obama administration tried to make the shutdown as painful as possible and it initially appears (if the shutdown happens, which is very likely) that the Trump administration will try to make it as painless as possible. A sign, perhaps, of which side is most at risk politically, which I agree is probably the GoP.
@Andy, interesting contrast on the NPS, but I have to wonder if the difference is in who would most notice or be effected by an NPS shutdown. Regionally, I think the parks skew to the West. On the basis of socio-economic class, they are probably used most by upper-middle class families? Would the strategy be to aggravate the other side’s base or your own?
https://www.nps.gov/hfc/cfm/carto.cfm
With all the different bubbles out there, this could boil down to the usual, “did too, did not” and other katzenjammering.
Whether its a factor in an Congressional off year election turnover depends on what set of fun house mirrors and kaleidoscopes you use to view reality.
Good point, walt. Attention spans tend to be short.
Katzenjammering is an awesome word choice here.
It depends on how long it goes. It goes past a month; it becomes a Pyrrhic victory whoever wins.
The last shutdown in 2013 did not play out as expected. Republicans did well in the midterms despite it all.
Blame will most probably be parceled out according to people’s ideological prism. Consequently, as the country is cut in half, in it’s polarization, I think both the D’s and R’s will be evenly castigated.
Looks like the NPS won’t be keeping stuff open after all.
PD,
“Regionally, I think the parks skew to the West. On the basis of socio-economic class, they are probably used most by upper-middle class families? Would the strategy be to aggravate the other side’s base or your own?”
They do skew west – at least the most popular ones. We’ve been hitting most of them for the past several months.
This time of year it’s actually mostly foreigners except on the weekends (no data, just based on who I see). I’ve been going to western national parks for decades and there’s always been a lot of Europeans and Asians (primarily German and Japanese) followed by retired people, especially in the off season (like now). They are all swamped in the summer by vacationing families, so that’s when you’d probably see the most middle-class peope.
I’m curious how Trump will define “The Wall”, his campaign promise.
Portions of the wall exist already, portions are impossible, and portions are unnecessary. Democrat leaders have offered increased funding for border security, and Trump has said no wall, no deal.
What actually constitutes this “Wall”?
Yes, It will be a continuous, physical wall, 80 to 100 foot high, spanning 2,000 miles of forbidding territory governed by evil, despicable, murdering, Mexican drug lords, who only live because we Americans don’t have the balls to protect our children from the scourge of METH.
Mexico=METH= Murder. Get on board!