The election is less than two weeks away and I’m having a horrible time trying to write anything remotely sensible about it. I think it’s reasonable to be skeptical about the polls. I doubt that the situation is either as dire for Republicans as some fear or that the polls are completely irrelevant. My own small experience with the polling process suggests to me that for whatever reason Republicans don’t respond on polls a readily as Democrats do. That means that any poll however well-constructed will undersample Republicans. It doesn’t need to be some sort of grand conspiracy.
You don’t need to look at polls to realize that Sen. Obama has some pretty enthusiastic support. Turnout at his rallies alone shows that. The event in St. Louis last weekend drew more than 100,000 people, my sister among them. Perhaps she’ll show up here and drop a comment with her impressions.
You don’t need to look at polls to realize that Sen. McCain’s support is phlegmatic at best. The glum looks on the faces of Republicans should be enough to show that.
I think that the fundamentals of the election favor an Obama victory. We’ve had eight troubled years of a Republican in the White House during which they haven’t exactly built a reputation for good governance. The war in Iraq isn’t particularly popular. And there’s tremendous uncertainty about the economy. All of those things favor any Democrat who’d happen to be running this year.
So I suspect that Sen. Obama will win the election. Whether Sen. Obama’s enthusiastic supporters and Sen. McCain’s phlegmatic support translates into a massive victory, an electoral landslide, or a veto-proof Democratic majority in the Senate only time will tell.