The general election will be held one week from tomorrow and much of the suspense will be over, except in the run-off states. Although I have been predicting that Democrats will hold the Senate for the better part of the last year, I now doubt that will be the outcome. It’s not just the Republicans’ advantages—the favorable election map, a midterm, the midterm of a president of the opposite party’s second term. It’s that I just don’t see the Democrats rallying to overcome those advantages as I thought they would.
As things look today after the elections a week from Tuesday Republicans are likely to hold 49 seats outright. Two seats are toss-ups (Colorado and Kansas) and are likely to go into run-offs (Georgia and Louisiana). When the dust has settled the Republicans will take an additional two seats, Colorado and Louisiana which will give them control of the Senate.
The more interesting question is what they’ll do with control of the Congress and on that subject I have no idea. I would hope that the new Republican leadership would be gracious in victory as I hope the president would be gracious in defeat but, sadly, I think that both of those are long shots.
What do you think the outcome of the November elections will be? Which party will control the Senate? If it’s the Republicans, what will they do and how will the president respond?
The Republicans will likely hold both houses of Congress. A lot of bills that have been sitting on Harry Reid’s desk, including many with bipartisan support, will go thru next January.
If they’re smart they’ll send the bills with bipartisan support thru first. (I hear these bills exist, but don’t know or car what they are.) That way they can say they’re extending an olive branch before everything goes to Hell.
Since I don’t think they’re smart, I believe they’ll start sending one bill after another to the President’s desk to be vetoed. The President is likely to increase the rate of executive orders, and Republicans will finally start fighting back somewhat effectively. Trust in the government and all parties will drop further.
The Republicans are also likely to ramp up the investigations of various matters with predictable results. I doubt there will be any impeachment proceedings, but we will probably all be looking back at the Clinton impeachment with a certain fondness by comparison.
The Dems will probably pick a new minority leader in the Senate, replacing the obviously senile Reid at least two years too late. No idea who it’ll be and I don’t care. It’ll be a nasty son of a bitch with the intent of further destruction to the American middle-class and body politic whoever it is. If there’s a drubbing in house races, Pelosi will possibly be replaced, too. See above about her replacement.
What’s hard to see is what happens with the lame duck Congress. It’s clear that Boehner wants amnesty as badly as the President does. Will they make a joint effort to cram it thru the House, or will the President go it alone? And if Boehner tries thecram-thru, will he get replaced as Speaker? This is the interesting thing.
Incidentally, seeing stories in the press asking why Duncan didn’t get the same treatment as the other American Ebola patients. Other Americans? The press is such a shameless arm of t he Democratic Party it’s revolting.
Oh, and Florida is going to wish @_FloridaMan won the gubernatorial election instead of whichever bung hole does win.
Agree with icepick’s predictions. Very depressing.
I imagine the GOP will put something on the table regarding immigration. I think it will be as messy as the ACA was for the Democrats…they will try to portray it as “getting the best possible bill they can, under the circumstances” but it will be just as much of a Rube Goldberg debacle as was ACA., and no one will be happy with the results.
Democratic control of the Senate has enabled the President to have the lowest number of vetoes since James Polk. If the GoP takes the Senate, that will change.
They will mostly pass bills pleasing to their base that will get vetoed, then claim Obama is not showing leadership.
Steve
So, Steve, you’re advocating that they pass bills that will get Obama’s approval, that is legislate like the other party?
Personally I think they should tell Obama what he told them, should it come to pass: “We won.”
I am saying they will immediately start campaigning for 2016. So let me ask you. What can they pass that Obama will sign that won’t get any individual Senator or Congressman in trouble with their base and result in a challenge from the right? Not much I think. Happy to be wrong.
Steve
Alternately… Obama might simply say, “I don’t like these bills, but the country has clearly spoken, and the Republicans have won.” And then put his signature on every single slip of paper the Republicans send him.
Wouldn’t that be fun? I’m sure the results would be glorious! And the voters would be so thrilled by the results that they’d all vote for the Republicans after that, for ever and ever.
Looking over some of the bills that have been stalled in the Senate (as I think about this I realize how bad the stagnation has been- so many issues have languished to the point that I had completely lost track of them), there are some key areas I think the GOP would do well to focus on.
Jobs, obviously, should be top priority. Keystone, reform of Dodd-Frank (specific reforms for small business), and crowd funding are the areas that come to mind.
Immigration: they will have to emphasize border security. IMO they should couple that with reform to the guest worker program. Some illegals will self deport if they can’t get work (and if the legislation also prohibits entitlements), and fewer will try to enter the country. Numbers have already decreased due to the economic downturn, so it would be an ideal time to reform the system.
Tax reform- flatter tax, reduce corporate tax rate.
Reform of the government. More protection for whistleblowers, improve the IG audit system.
That’s my wish list, anyway.
So, shupp, you think the Republicans should bend over for Obama but not the other way around? I believe that’s what I was saying Steve was after.
I’m not expecting either side to back down, nor should they, automatically. Elections are supposed to have consequences, after all.
The trend seems to be drifting ever so slowly towards republicans, mainly because people have become so fed-up with how the last 6 years have gone. However, election day is where speculation turns into reality, and I think the social progressive wing of the democratic party will do whatever it takes to win — be it legal or illegal. CO is a prime example of new dem strategies in place to garner last minute votes, even though Gardner has been up in the last 10 plus polls (except for one). Consequently, IMO, it’s a 50/50 proposition as to whether or not the Senate changes hands, despite the incredible unpopularity of Reid and Obama.
If the dems retain control of the Senate, I predict the House will continue to be shut out of the process in seeing any of their bills introduced, let alone presented to the President for his approval or veto. The POTUS, will ratchet up his EOs getting some of his more controversial legislation unilaterally enacted. There will be even greater polarization in Congress and public divisiveness, as well as greater disparities between the uber rich and the poor, with the sacrificial middle class struggling and fading even more.
If the republicans manage to take over the Senate, bills (like ice said) will be able to flow more quickly to the Senate, be debated, amended and passed to the President’s desk. Given his standoffish nature, though, he will most likely veto them (what Andy alluded to), after first excoriating their content and rationalizing their intent to be nothing more than political ploys against him (in harmony with Steve’s thinking). However, despite, this continuing partisan ill will, I think more will be accomplished with a Congress more in step with each other, than how it’s been under a split Congress, with the House being constantly stymied by an unyielding partisan leader in the Senate.
I thought this clip at least indicates a small break in the monolithic grasp the dems have on black voters. There seems to be a learning curve slowly emerging in some of the more aware, independent-thinking people in Chicago, who are less beholding to the dependency propaganda of the democratic elite. It’s a good corrective first step.
Elections are supposed to have consequences, after all.
Ice — I expect that given control of both Houses of Congress, the Republicans would pass many many bills aimed less at effective governance and more at embarrassing Obama (total repeal of the PPACA, for instance, or telling the NSF not to spend money on climate studies), mostly with the goal of improving their chances in the 2016 Presidential race.
And yes, I’d expect most of those bills to be very bad ones indeed.