Election Predictions

I’m going to be pretty busy for the next couple of days. Tomorrow morning I’m serving as an election judge in a nursing home. It’s a thankless distressing task but, if I didn’t do it, it would be done by somebody less capable and conscientious than I am.

On Tuesday I’ll serve between 15 and 16 hours as an election judge, arriving at the polls at 5:00am and returning home between 8:00pm and 9:00pm in a state of semi-consciousness. I picked up some of the election materials this morning. Eighty people have voted early or absentee in the precinct in which I’m working. That amounts to nearly 20% of the entire registration. It’s a mature precinct and I genuinely doubt there will be a vast number of new registrations. Assuming a 90% turnout (which I expect), that means we’ll have in the vicinity of 300 voters to wrangle over a period of 13 hours, averaging fewer than 25 per hour. They’ll be highly concentrated at the top and the bottom of the hour each hour, more before work than after.

In all likelihood I’ll vote for Obama but not with any real enthusiasm. Not that it matters in Illinois.

I’ve put my election predictions as an update to James’s post at Outside the Beltway.

10 comments… add one
  • Joanne Link

    I have no idea how I arrived here, but it must be for good reason.

    Obama voted against the surge and voted to stop all funding for boots already on the ground in Iraq. Just think how many lives were saved alone with McCain’s supporting of the surge in Iraq. If in good conscience you can vote for Obama – go ahead, but just know that far fewer parents and relatives had to grieve for lost loved ones because of McCain’s love for his country and the men and women putting their lives on the line for her.

    Don’t think your vote doesn’t matter – it does.

    God Bless

  • Thanks for dropping by, Joanne. If you prowl around here, you’ll find I hold a somewhat paradoxical position: I opposed the invasion of Iraq and support our maintaining a high level of troop commitment there. I supported the Surge but I think that at this point either Sen. Obama or McCain is likely to maintain a pretty high level of commitment to Iraq, largely because to do anything else would be foolhardy.

    I’m not just being a Gloomy Gus when I say my vote doesn’t count. Illinois is going to go overwhelmingly for Obama. Even if I voted for McCain and I convinced everybody I know to do so, too, it wouldn’t change that.

  • Only discovered your site a few days ago, coming from a link at Rightwing Nuthouse. Thanks for some fantastic and nuanced posts.

    I too have an inconsequential vote, living as I do in California. I too am voting for Obama, though with greater enthusiasm than you appear able to muster.

    I’ll be particularly interested to see how the blogosphere settles over the coming weeks post election. It appears, from the postings I’ve seen, and the vitriol directed at Rick over at Rightwing Nuthouse and others for their measured posts, that it’s going to continue to be a nasty place out there. It’s been great to find as many thoughtful and intelligent voices from multiple points of view as I have over the past couple weeks.

    I’ll be sure to keep reading.

  • Thanks for dropping by, Eric. I consider Rick Moran, the proprietor of Right Wing Nut House, a friend. Although we differ on some issues I think we share at least one quality: both he and I try to be as fairminded as possible.

  • My pleasure, Dave. I agree on Rick too. I’m not generally a fan of his positions but I truly enjoy his writing and thought process. I’m guessing I’m quite a bit to the left of most of the blogs, and other media, I read. I’ve never much enjoyed living in an echo chamber. Fair minded is all anyone can ask. Keep it up.

  • Thomas Jackson Link

    I used to wonder how people could support people who were the scum of the earth until I read about the Germans who were descent people who believed Hitler would bring change or the Cubans who believed that Castro would bring democracy. I can’t wait to see what wars we see if Obama is elected or the economic disasters that await.

    I never thought a party could stoop so low to nominate someone like Obama. Wnat next a NAMBLA candidate?

  • Tom Strong Link

    Dave, thanks for volunteering.

  • Thanks, Tom. I’ve been doing it for almost 25 years. I think it’s a way of contributing to my community. During that period I’ve gone from being the youngest election judge in the precinct by a substantial margin to being very nearly the oldest.

  • @ Thomas,

    Get some perspective! Forget Obama, It’s insulting to those who suffered under Nazi persecution when you draw such parallels. They’re inappropriate. Read your history. There was no question about Hitler’s intentions. . . he wrote about them clearly.

    Also, it’s DECENT, not DESCENT. . . though you’re descending to some pretty disgusting depths here.

  • tom p Link

    Dave,

    to echo several others, thank you for doing a thankless job. I am an Obama supporter (in a red area of MO) who was sent to the polls to make sure everybody who wanted to vote was able to vote…

    I was willing to do that for a McCain supporter as well as an Obama supporter. (all got to vote, no problems)

    Once every couple years, they HAVE to listen to us, and I want all to be heard….

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