The Crystal Ball is projecting that Republicans will maintain control of the House of Representatives after Nov. 7. Following a race-by-race analysis, here’s the bottom line:
Democrats need a big wave to capture the House: If Democrats were to win all the races that at least lean to them and ALL the leans Republican seats, they would have 220 House seats, or two more than a bare majority. Democrats nearly sweeping all the leans Republican seats is possible, but not plausible, especially with no lift from the generic ballot — or, it appears, from the top of the ticket. There will be plenty of drama in individual House races across the country, and there are a range of potential outcomes. But we believe that Democratic control of the House is no longer one of them.
That would leave the following prospective outcomes:
- Divided government—Obama is re-elected, Democrats retain control of Senate, Republicans retain control of House.
- Divided government—Obama is re-elected, Republicans control House and Senate.
- Divided government—Romney elected, Democrats retain control of Senate, Republicans retain control of House.
- Republican rule—Romney elected, Republicans take control of Senate, Republicans retain control of House.
The Crystal Ball’s status report on the Senate elections is here. Basically, it’s a toss-up.