Drs. Reinhart and Rogoff are pushing back against those economists, mostly Romney advisors, who have, contra the findings of Reinhart and Rogoff, claimed that American economic recoveries after a financial crisis are different than those in other countries:
Although no two crises are identical, we have found that there are some recurring features that cut across time and national borders. Common patterns in the nature of the long boom-bust cycles in debt and their relationship to economic activity emerge as a common thread across very diverse institutional settings.
The most recent U.S. crisis appears to fit the more general pattern of a recovery from severe financial crisis that is more protracted than with a normal recession or milder forms of financial distress. There is certainly little evidence to suggest that this time was worse. Indeed, if one compares U.S. output per capita and employment performance with those of other countries that suffered systemic financial crises in 2007-08, the U.S. performance is better than average.
This doesn’t mean that policy is irrelevant, of course. On the contrary, at the depth of the recent financial crisis, there was almost certainly a risk of a second Great Depression. However, although it is clear that the challenges in recovering from financial crises are daunting, an early recognition of the likely depth and duration of the problem would certainly have been helpful, particularly in assessing various responses and their attendant risks. Policy choices also matter going forward.
Also, as Jon Hilsenrath and Ezra Klein report, over the weekend Carmen Reinhart and Ken Rogoff released a short rebuttal to Bordo and Haubrich as well as to several opeds. Reinhart and Rogoff argue in favor of a narrower definition of a financial crisis, and they thus focus on a subset of the eight Bordo-Haubrich recessions with financial crises (for example, they exclude 1913 and 1982). This alone does not change the Bordo-Haubrich results as the figure in my post of last week makes clear. But Reinhart and Rogoff argue that one should look at the downturn as well as the recovery when looking at severity. There is no disagreement that recessions associated with financial crises have tended to be deeper than those without financial crises. The disagreement is over the recoveries. By mixing downturns with recoveries Reinhart and Rogoff get different results from Bordo and Haubrich.
For me the greatest question is where you go from here and I’d like to see a lot more from the Obama Administration on what they’d do with another four years of stewardship.
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I’d like to see a lot more from the Obama Administration on what they’d do with another four years of stewardship.
If they haven’t told you by now, then they’re not going to tell you. (And signs point to them not having any clue regardless.) How often has the October Surprise been that the incumbent decides to tell everyone his plans?
…
I saw on the news scroll at Monkey Joe’s today (!) that some Romney adviser had rejected the idea of breaking up TBTF banks or otherwise limiting their size, preferring that market forces make those decisions. That’s great, except that banks generally and megabanks in particular do not operate solely within some market – the government backstops them in any number of ways. That’s really disappointing and reminds me of why I’m DO NOT want to vote for Romney.
Political Signage for Today:
Romney …….. 176
Obama ……… 73
Defeat Obama, Save America ….. 1
More later, for those that want details, but I will write all that up and post it at my place. Things are actually looking a little tighter than the numbers above suggest. All but four of the 250 mentioned above were seen today.
So, I spent the day transferring condo duties to the boys’ mother.
I really like her. Why have they kept us apart so long?
Why have they kept us apart so long?
Divide and conquer. Come on, Janis, that one is obvious!
Punk.
See, the problem you have is that you don’t see yourself as the enemy, as the obstacle to be overcome. It’s a blind spot for most people. (You wouldn’t believe how big it is for me.)
Oh, I see it. Particularly with Michael. He put us into a Wagnerian cycle, but a pair of cowgirl boots will kick that sh*it off the porch in a minute.
My stepson, Michael. Not the author.
I understood, but thanks for clarifying.
Why aren’t you mine?
What, your enemy? My enemies are mostly blood relatives, and mostly dead. I’m pretty sure we’re not related, and you seem to be alive and kicking – I mean, why else buy all them boots?
The boy only needed a straight lady.
Oh, now I understand what you meant. Sorry, skull density has gone up lately, along with daughter’s mobility.
She needs some cowgirl boots.
Well, I got those black boots today. Some red Noconas, too.
Neither the Obama camp nor the Romney camp sent them. Let’s me off the hook.
One more pair of good-looking tan Noconas and I’ll be all set.
While I like her, I don’t know how good this woman is going to be at managing condo rentals. Today I told her that the upcoming snowbirds wanted a small crockpot in the kitchen.
I asked her if she wanted me to run out and buy one for her to pick up here when she comes by for a few things tomorrow.
“Why are you doing that?”
“Because they want one.” (Mind, these people are going to pay her over $3000 in rent. A 4-qt. crockpot costs $15.))
“I don’t have any in my units.”
Ahem.
What the f*ck is wrong with these people?
This is a woman who drives a silver Acura MDX.
Goddamit.
My husband I worked on that property for 12 years.
Where y’all get that stupid?
Where y’all get that stupid?
It’s grown from a culture in a Petri dish in a secret government lab. It’s from the same people that developed the zombie stuff. It’s really the same idea – it’s just as destructive, but it takes longer and is more annoying to the survivors. It’s the ultimate terror weapon.
Ice, she owns two other condos down in Orange Beach. Says she has problems with people tearing up stuff. No sh*t.
Wonder why.
Don’t give the girl red Noconas.
They’re real, real comfortable.
I mean, honestly, what do I want with Alabama? Nothin’ I can think of offhand.
So, I just talked to this nice guy at Goldston Oil. He says he wouldn’t want to go up against me in battle.
Probably not.
@Janis Gore
I mean, honestly, what do I want with Alabama? Nothin’ I can think of offhand.
BBQ pork – smoked with apple wood and no sauce
Crimson Tide
Rep. Henry B. Steagall
@Janis Gore
The Shoe Corp of Birmingham: Steel Toe Boot
You can’t get into corners, but you can eliminate the corner.
CRIMSON TIDE! Don’t get me started.
And I nearly languished at Big John’s in Ferriday yesterday, regarding BBQ. Too expensive. I bought an excellent cheeseburger.
Just down the street from where I bought the red Noconas.
Ima be Jerry Lee Lewis’ 15th wife.
You can’t get into corners, but you can eliminate the corner.
LOL!
I spent a couple of years in Huntsville one summer. At least it seemed like a couple of years.
@Janis Gore
CRIMSON TIDE! Don’t get me started.
“Bear” Bryant & the wishbone – What’s the problem? But, you may prefer the Chinese Bandits.
… Too expensive. …
Blasphemy. Good smoked pork is never too expensive.
Or, do it yourself – beer, pig, beer, microwave, beer, boots, more beer.
Oh, I can. Bourbon and apple juice in the bottom of a roasting pan with ribs. Or the Bradley Smoker.
My boy bought that when I was tending to my mother in Dallas.
Nick Saban.
this or this?
I actually met Nick Saban once at the old Ramada on the bluff.
He’s very handsome, and has really lovely, long-fingered hands. He’s also about my height.
I like a taller man.
Nick Saban – the most evil man in America today not named Bill Belichick. Of course Evil Little Bill was No-Nickname-Nick’s mentor. And ELB was mentored by the sociopathic Bill “Big Tuna” Parcells. It’s Anti-Christs all the way down….
Then this woman comes back to me and says she and her husband have decided that I should pay part of the property taxes, about $1500 due Dec.31.
I said, “Y’all are out of your everlovin’ minds. My name isn’t on that tax notice.”
The condo was placed in the boy’s names when we bought it, to avoid inheritance taxes.
Chiselers. Maybe I don’t like this woman so well after all.
Quite a banter!
She’s gonna think about this some more and realize she would have been smarter to do this in January. This’ll save me about $3500.
Too bad. My disconnect notices are already in.
No, over $4,000.
Those tan boots come home tomorrow.
Where in the hell am I going to put all these boot boxes?