Well, I was wrong. Again. Based on the RealClearPolitics average of polls President Obama is up three points over Gov. Romney. That’s nearly the opposite of what I’d predicted (small bump for Romney, none for Obama). Other than Rasmussen which tends to be an outlier none of the major polls shows Romney ahead.
I’m still trying to puzzle it out. I don’t think it’s possible for anyone to have suddenly made up their minds about the president. If anything, he’s over-exposed. It may be that the more voters see of Mitt Romney the less they like him.
It also could be due to more strategic factors. The Obama Campaign has been advertising heavily throughout the conventions and in their immediate aftermath. The Romney Campaign has quite a fund-raising advantage over its opponents so I presume we will very shortly seen an enormous deluge of pro-Romney or anti-Obama television spots (particularly if “we” is defined as people living in the handful of battleground states, e.g. Ohio, Virginia, Colorado, etc.)
I wonder what they’re waiting for. Obviously, these are tactical decisions on the parts of the respective campaigns but at this juncture it really doesn’t look like the Romney Campaign’s gamble is paying off.