It’s a big time of year for “top ten” lists. At RealClearDefense James M. Lindsay presents the Council on Foreign Relations’s list of ten most significant world events:
- Robert Mugabe’s Ouster
- Britain Triggers Article 50 (official beginning of divorce from EU)
- The Rohingya Crisis
- The Fall of Mosul
- Mohammad bin Salman Remakes Saudi Arabia
- Global Growth Picks Up
- The Globe Continues to Warm
- North Korea Defies the World
- Xi Jinping’s “Extraordinary Elevation
- Donald Trump Champions America First
Is he right? Wrong? Is there something that he’s missed?
I note that Time’s “Most Important…” is conspicuously missing from that list. And not a word about Meghan Markle.
Has Trump actually *done* anything yet, that a more traditional Republican President wouldn’t have done? His administration has so far been inept and incapable of carrying the ball forward compared to a generic Republican. I would drop him completely.
I do think that #metoo and the change in acceptable norms for sexual harassment in the US is very important, and should be in there somewhere. The Rohinga would probably object if it was above their plight, but what’s another genocide in our species’ history?
1. Continued Global Warming — it’s very possibly an extinction level event
2. North Korea — they are going to set off an arms race for nuclear weapons and icbms, which makes the likelihood of an extinction level event higher.
3. Nationalism in Europe — from Britain’s exit from the EU, to Catalan independence to neonazis in Germany. This doesn’t end well, and there are credible stories of Russia stoking the fires in all of them.
Then a huge gap as we move away from chaos among nuclear powers.
And then some other events that are locally very important, but which are geographically contained. Rohinga getting killed, #metoo, Robert Mugabe, Saudi Arabia, etc.
Drop global warming. It is real, but nearly all of it is a natural recovery from the Little Ice Age, and we are still on a long term cooling trend. The Middle Ages were warmer, the era of the Roman expansion warmer yet, and the Minoan hey day even warmer.
Markle’s marriage into England’s Royal Family continues is degradation: the renunciation of the ancient family name, the abandonment of the Tsar, Edward, Prince Charles, the murder of Diana, now a 40 year old “actressâ€/gold-digger.
It gets overshadowed by Xi’s rise in China. But Abe also consolidated his power to be the strongest leader in postwar Japan. Japan has lots of issues; but it’s economy is the strongest since 1990; definitely will shake things up in a world that assumes Japan is a declining power.
I would say Trump being elected is number one, but don’t understand the odd phrasing about America First. Did they really mean to say something like “Rich Americans First”?
Steve
Trump being inaugurated would probably do, particularly since Brexit gets a two-fer. Unsettled expectations more than anything.
Trump’s election has apparently frozen partisanship in ice. Or, given the vote on the affordable care act, maybe Trump’s election was the result of that impasse. No, on second thought, Trump’s election was the inevitable result of Obama’s in your face partisanship.
I think that 2017’s Big (small) story is the dam breaking on sexual coercion in the workplace.
Thumbs up for Gray Shambler. The sexual coercion story is going to be very big — not that it’s going to lead to a Remaking of Society, but a lot of influential males are going to lose power and prestige and be replaced by another set of guys, and that’s going to be significant in some way even if they have their own nasty habits.
And otherwise … Mugabe losing power matters in Mozambique certainly, but he’s hardly the first African despot to be shoved out of office, and is unlikely to be the last. I suspect the actually significant African news is that mostly the continent is peaceful these days and people are leading better lives. 50 years of that will change the world!
Brexit … would have been a phenomenal story with obvious world-historical importance in 1947. In 1957 — the age of Suez and Sputnik and the Hungarian revolt — it would have been tremendously important for Europeans and people like Americans who paid attention to Europe. In 1967, it would have seemed reasonably important but second string in comparison to the Viet Nam War. And in 2017? There are important technical issues involving England’s role in world banking to resolve, but this seems kind of a parochial issue. England doesn’t shake the world anymore, and I’m not even sure Europe does. Sheesh!
Rohingya, Mosul, ISIS. Islamic issues. Yeah, reasonably important.
Mohammed ben Salmon. Hmm. He’s overreaching is my bet, he’ll get slapped down soon enough, or maybe not, and in either event he probably won’t do all that much that’s good for Saudi Arabia. Or so it seems to me. I might be overly cynical.
North Korea Defies The World! We’ve seen 60 years of this, and outside of South Korea and the USA and Japan, some of the time, the world doesn’t seem all that perturbed. There was a time, back in the 1970’s if memory serves, when South Africa had nuclear weapons for a couple of years. Who here ….memorialized …. those years with more frequent bathroom visits to do Number Two? Did you run into American politicians and generals with the same pressing concerns? If not, why not? The fact that South Africkaners spoke something like English?
Xi Jinping. Yep.
Donald Trump Champions American First. Sort of, but I’d rephrase the headline. Donald Trump Accelerates American Decline. How’s that work for you?